CQ Politics: "Knollenberg is Probably Toast"

Oh, how I've waited to see those words in print. "Knollenberg is probably toast." Be still my heart. We're almost there. I can't wait to see a check mark on television next to Gary Peters' name.

A strong campaign organization bolstered by a heavy independent expenditure campaign by the DCCC have pushed Democrat Gary Peters, a former state senator, slightly ahead in his quest to unseat eight-term Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg in this district in suburban Detroit’s Oakland County.

“The conventional wisdom here is Knollenberg is probably toast,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of the non-partisan publication Inside Michigan Politics.

The congressman’s problem in part is due to demographic changes in the district, as Democrats make gains in voter registration. “Knollenberg’s district is just changing demographically with the passage of time. Every two years it gets less and less Republican,” Ballenger said.

Another problem is the potential coattails effect from Obama’s campaign, which is now favored to carry Michigan and its 17 electoral votes. Polling indicates Obama leads Republican John McCain by a double-digit margin in Michigan, and a survey released Thursday by the Lansing polling firm EPIC-MRA found that voters statewide give Democrats a 12-point lead over Republicans in a generic congressional match-up.