Thursday, November 08, 2007

Peters Surging, Knollenberg Tanking

It's very bad news for an incumbent when they poll below 50%, so this is very good news for challenger Gary Peters. And the SCHIP polling shows a 14 point swing.

Gary Peters (D): 35
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.8%)
While the exact trendlines are not available, Knollenberg's 7-point lead is down from a 12-point lead in April. He's also well under the magic 50%
mark, well before the campaign has even been engaged. Not good news for Team Red.

And in a sign of S-CHIP's salience, Knollenberg is very vulnerable on the issue:

Knollenberg's 7-point lead turned into a 7-point deficit after respondents were read both a push question characterizing his position on SCHIP, and the Democratic and Republican arguments for and against the program.


Chet said...

Who did the polling, what were the exact questions, and where's the methodology?

Bruce Fealk said...

It came from Roll Call and I don't have a subscription. Perhaps you do, Chet and you can fill us all in.

Chet said...

nope, no roll call sub here.

hopefully the methodology will appear somewhere though. polls are quite useless without it.

MIKE said...

Come Nov 08, the "mother of all poll" will be history - and so will Joe Knollenberg. You can fool some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time - well you know that cliche. Time for a change!